GBP/USD 1H
The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade in a very narrow price range on August 17, by only a few dozen points. So Monday was really very boring. Traders rested all day without even trying to trade the pair. As a result, the quotes moved flat even inside the side channel. In recent days, the pound/dollar pair does not even try to approach the upper or lower line of the side channel.
In general, a complete calm. Thus, there is no movement with a certain direction even inside the side channel, which makes it difficult to trade even on the smallest timeframes. Based on this, we believe that the best option at this time is to wait for the flat to end and the resumption of the trend movement.
GBP/USD 15M Both linear regression channels are directed upwards on the 15-minute timeframe, but the lower channel eloquently shows how volatile trading is now and where the pound/dollar pair is mainly moving. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report for the British pound, which was released on Friday, turned out to be almost an exact copy of the report on the euro currency. As for the euro, big traders opened new Buy-contracts (2,569) in the reporting week and closed Sell-contracts (8,405). Thus, the net position for non-commercial traders increased by almost 11,000 during the reporting week, which, in fact, means an increase in bullish sentiment.
We could draw the same conclusions based on the nature of the movement of the pair itself. Given the fact that we have not seen even a normal correction of the British pound for several weeks, we can make a clear conclusion that big traders are not selling this currency now. Therefore, even the COT report does not yet suggest the beginning of a new downward trend. At the same time, the new week started with extremely weak movement. Have professional traders decreased their activity?
The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair was simply absent on Monday. Based on the nature of the pair’s movement during the day, one could draw this conclusion without even looking at the calendar of macroeconomic events. Unfortunately, the situation with the fundamental background is unlikely to change today, because the news calendar is still empty. There is almost no news even on broad fundamental topics at the moment.
There are rumors that Washington is going to use more serious weapons in the “cold war” with China, but it has not yet reached the point of actions and direct threats to use new “weapons”. The whole world could already enjoy the trade war between China and the United States, which plunged the world economy into recession. As for the UK, there is generally a news calm. Several macroeconomic reports were published last week, which, however, also did not help the pair finish flat, and traders decided which way to trade.
There are two main options for the development of events on August 18:
1) Buyers in general continue to hold the pound/dollar initiative in their hands. We recommend opening new purchases of the British currency, but not before the 1.3157-1.3181 area has been overcome with targets at the resistance levels of 1.3213 and 1.3284. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 20 to 90 points. You can also try to buy the pound when the price rebounds from the Kijun-sen, but this signal will be weak.
2) Bears have already failed to overcome the support area 1.3003-1.3023 five or six times. Thus, consolidating the price below the Kijun-sen line (1.3067) will allow us to expect the price to fall in this area. Each trader has to decide for himself whether to reject this signal or not, since the pair as a whole remains in a flat. We do not see the pair below the 1.3003 level yet, but if this level is overcome, we recommend opening sells with targets at 1.2939 and 1.2873.
Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
We also recommend that you study the fundamental background in these articles:
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 18. The US dollar has no reason to get more expensive, except for technical reasons. Donald Trump is reducing the gap from Joe Biden by several percent.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 18. Scotland and Northern Ireland are increasingly hinting at their exit from the UK. The British economy will continue to experience problems in 2021.
Explanations for illustrations:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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