Last Friday, after optimistic data on employment in the US, the euro grew by 64 points by the end of the day, on volumes smaller than on Tuesday-Thursday. The euro’s growth occurred against the backdrop of rising yields on government bonds and a fall in the stock market. In general, a picture is being created of the withdrawal of capital from US assets, it is likely that there is a reduction in carry-trade operations, and if this is the case, then the euro’s growth will be short-term.
Today’s opening of the market with a falling gap shows investors’ uncertainty about further purchases of the European currency. The euro bulls have two technical levels: 1.1383 – the upper limit of the free-roaming range, 1.1415 – the high of June 2019 and June 2020. We can only consider a medium-term growth of the EUR/USD pair to the target level of 1.1570 after the price breaks above 1.1415. But now we can speak of a decline only after the price returns under the MACD indicator line on the daily scale, below 1.1312.
On the H4 chart, the price is in a growing position – it is above both indicator lines. Growth is supported by the Marlin Oscillator, which is in the positive area. There are no noticeable barriers to the price on the way to 1.1383 (1.1415), especially if today’s data on employment in the euro area meet expectations (the forecast for unemployment for November 7.2% versus 7.3% in October), but the price may also return to its original positions Friday on new data on the epidemic, if they show deterioration. We are waiting for the development of events.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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