EUR/USD
The expected euro reversal is delayed. Markets are laying the probability of a threefold Fed rate cut by April, that is, from the current of 1.25% to 0.50%. Investors clearly suffered, because on Wednesday the head of the St. Petersburg Federal Reserve Bank of St. James James Bullard spoke and said bluntly that the markets were mistaken, laying even a quarter point rate hike on March 18, since an emergency rate cut on Tuesday was a preventive measure, you need to get at least some information on the impact of coronavirus on the US economy.
Trading volumes sharply fell, but still exceeded the top five-month volumes. This is excessive volumes for yesterday’s growth of the euro by 100 points, which means that strategic investors still continued to close positions on the purchase of middle-hand players.
The price stopped at the Fibonacci level of 100.0% – at the top of December 31. The Marlin oscillator began to turn around from overbought zone. Today, US employment data for February will be released. The consensus forecast for unemployment is the previous 3.6%, but there are estimates even lower at 3.5%. Outside the agricultural sector, an increase of 175 thousand new jobs is expected. This news is likely to become a turning point for the entire market.
On the four-hour chart according to Marlin, divergence is forming. The purpose of the euro decline is the Fibonacci level of 61.8% (in fact 38.2% of the growth since February 20), the MACD line is striving for this level both on the daily chart and on the four-hour chart.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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