Last Friday, the pound tried to attack the support of the April 10th and 17th lows, just below which lies the MACD indicator line on the daily chart (1.2333). However, it failed, leaving a long lower shadow. Nevertheless, this candlestick shows what the price wants to achieve – reaching the MACD line. If it succeeds in its second attempt, the next target at 1.2273 will become available.
To disrupt the main bearish plan and develop the situation according to the alternative bullish scenario, the price must consolidate above the nearest resistance level of 1.2447 – above the January 23rd high. Despite the formally opened target of 1.2598, the price will still have two intermediate levels: 1.2524 and 1.2545 – the April 4th and 14th highs, so such a strong growth (up to 1.2598) is possible only if the Federal Reserve eases its policy.
On the four-hour chart, the price is trying to climb above the MACD indicator line for the third time. The coincidence of this line with the 1.2447 level and the oscillator’s downward reversal currently appear as strong arguments in favor of the bears. It is possible that the price will settle within the range (with its upper limit at 1.2447) for the entire week in anticipation of the Fed meeting on May 3rd.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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