On Wednesday, the British pound rose slightly due to rising stock indices. This morning, the growth continues. If the ECB cuts the rate today and the euro turns downward, the pound might reach the target level of 1.2826 (the December 2023 peak) and, with the formation of a double divergence on the daily scale, reverse into a medium-term decline.
The first serious target will be the MACD line around the 1.2638 mark. If euro growth follows the ECB meeting, the pound might extend its rise to the target level of 1.2940. For this, it needs to consolidate above 1.2826.
The price is trying to rise on the four-hour chart, supported by the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is developing in a lateral consolidation range, maintaining a high likelihood of breaking the range downwards. Since the price has already dipped deeply below the MACD line twice with lower shadows (ticks on the chart), overcoming the support level of 1.2745 becomes a condition for a reversal.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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